Excluding Amazon, the global retail advertising market is forecast to grow just 9.8% in 2027, marking the lowest year-over-year growth rate since WARC Media began tracking the category, according to Insideradio. The 9.8% growth exposes a market where impressive top-line growth conceals a profound struggle for diversified expansion.
The global retail media market is projected to surpass $200 billion in 2026, yet its growth rate, excluding Amazon, is set to dip to a record low of 9.8% in 2027. The dip to a record low of 9.8% in 2027 marks a critical divergence: the market's overall expansion is almost entirely propped up by a single dominant player.
Companies increasingly rely on Amazon for retail media reach, stifling competition and limiting diversified ad spend across other platforms. The concentration of power transforms a burgeoning market into a winner-take-all landscape, where only Amazon truly thrives.
The Expanding Retail Media Pie
The global retail media market is projected to reach $200.4 billion in 2026 and $223.4 billion in 2027, an 11.5% increase from 2026, according to Insideradio. The projected market size of $223.4 billion in 2027 positions retail media to account for 15.2% of all advertising investment worldwide by 2027. While these figures suggest robust expansion, they obscure a fundamental truth: the market's rapid growth is not evenly distributed. The collective investment reaching $223.4 billion by 2027 has undeniable significance for brands seeking direct consumer engagement, yet the broad growth distorts the actual market health for most participants, masking a deeper competitive imbalance.
Amazon's Unmatched Market Share
Amazon commanded 78% of U.S. retail media spending in 2025, while Walmart captured a mere 7.5%, according to Insideradio and Roastbrief US. Amazon's 78% share leaves rivals with a fraction of the market, revealing a profound competitive imbalance. Other retailers are not merely struggling; they are being systematically marginalized into niche roles. The disparity extends to absolute spending: emarketer data shows Amazon's US retail media ad spending at $56.71 billion in 2026, dwarfing Walmart's $5.99 billion. This means other retailers are not just competing for ad dollars; they are fighting for scraps in a market overwhelmingly dominated by a single player, severely limiting brands' opportunities for diversified advertising channels.
The Broader Impact of Amazon's Influence
Excluding Amazon, the global retail media market is forecast to grow just 9.8% in 2027, the lowest year-over-year rate since WARC Media began tracking, per Insideradio. The 9.8% growth slowdown is masked only by the e-commerce giant's continued expansion, creating a false impression of widespread market health. Amazon's command of over 75% of all US retail media ad spending in 2025, according to emarketer, means even highly motivated advertisers find few viable alternatives for achieving scale outside its ecosystem. The 'retail media gold rush' is effectively over for anyone not named Amazon, forcing brands to consolidate ad spend where the audience already exists. The dynamic of brands consolidating ad spend where the audience already exists is evident in sectors like alcoholic beverages, where significant investment (55.8% of global media investment by 2027, per Insideradio.com) is funneled into a single platform, limiting strategic options and increasing reliance on Amazon's terms.
Projecting Future Disparities
Amazon's US ad revenues are forecasted to increase 17.9% year-over-year in 2026, reaching $56.71 billion, according to emarketer. Amazon's forecasted 17.9% growth, coupled with Walmart's projected $5.99 billion in the same year, reveals a structural imbalance. The structural imbalance renders it nearly impossible for other retailers to achieve competitive economies of scale in their ad platforms, solidifying Amazon's insurmountable lead. The projected expansion of Amazon's ad revenue, significantly outpacing its nearest rival, ensures a widening competitive chasm. By 2027, the market structure will likely reinforce Amazon's dominance, making it increasingly difficult for new entrants or smaller networks to challenge its scale.
Understanding Retail Media's Strategic Reach
Given Amazon's entrenched market share and the projected deceleration of growth for all other players, the retail media landscape will likely consolidate further by 2027, challenging brands to find diversified, scalable advertising channels outside the e-commerce giant's orbit.
